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The Florida Association of Realtors announced the current outlook as well as a view for the near future using a specialized index to evaulate the current and future markets. They explain the methodology as well as the outlook below:

Aug. 22, 2007 “ A forward-looking index for the commercial real estate market recorded its ninth consecutive improvement in the second quarter, according to the National Association of Realtors® (NAR).

The Commercial Leading Indicator for Brokerage Activity rose 0.5 percent to an index of 120.7 in the second quarter, the highest on record, from a downwardly revised reading of 120.1 in the first quarter, and is 1.1 percent higher than the second quarter of 2006 when it stood at 119.7.

NAR™s track of the index dates back to 1990. ¨ Lawrence Yun, NAR senior economist, says the commercial sectors are benefiting most from rises in industrial production, shipments of durable goods and wholesale trade.

œDespite some signs of slower overall economic expansion, the rise in the index means net absorption of space in the industrial and office sectors is likely to expand over the next six to nine months, he says. œIn addition, an improvement in returns on investment implies healthy rent increases for commercial property owners.¨¨

Positive movements in the index components more than offset a fall in the National Association of Real Estate Investment Trusts price index. The net gain in NAR™s index also indicates modestly higher completions of overall office, warehouse, retail and lodging structures. ¨¨

œIn short, the latest data suggests improved business opportunities for commercial real estate practitioners in the months ahead, Yun says.

¨¨Net absorption in the office and industrial sectors in the fourth quarter of 2007 is expected to be 30 million to 40 million square feet, with about $365 billion to $375 billion in new completed commercial construction activity, compared with $343 billion of new construction reported in the second quarter of this year.

¨¨The rise in the commercial leading indicator also implies that commercial real estate practitioners could expect leasing and sales activity in the fourth quarter of this year to be about 1.1 percent higher than the fourth quarter of 2006.

The commercial leading indicator is a tool to assess market behavior in the major commercial real estate sectors. The index incorporates 13 variables that reflect future commercial real estate activity, weighted appropriately to produce a single indicator of future market performance, and is designed to provide early signals of turning points between expansions and slowdowns in commercial real estate. ¨¨

The 13 series in the index are industrial production, the REIT (real estate investment trust) price index, NCREIF (National Council of Real Estate Investment Fiduciaries) total return, personal income minus transfer payments, jobs in financial activities, jobs in professional business service, jobs in temporary help, jobs in retail trade, jobs in wholesale trade, initial claims for unemployment insurance, manufacturers™ durable goods shipment, wholesale merchant sales, and retail sales and food service.¨

© 2007 FLORIDA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS

Stay tuned to our Commercial Real Estate Blog at J.A. Barnett Realty Group for more up to the minute market information on Florida and Tampa Bay investment real estate.

Peter Barnett, CCIM

At first glance in the Florida market where insurance rate increases are causing so much turmoil, you would think that when Governor Charlie Crist rejected 3 insurance carriers requests to decrease their rates it would be met with much disapproval. The fact is, that these decreases were rejected because the proposed decreases were not low enough to satisfy what Florida investors and homeowners need. This in itself gives evidence that the problems faced by property owners in Florida are finally being heard by lawmakers and are starting to get some positive action taken on their behalf.

Three companies in florida submitted for rate decreases, Cypress Property & Casualty proposed a 5.4 percent decrease in rates; First Floridian Auto & Home proposed lowering rates by 8.3 percent; and Travelers Indemnity Company of America which proposed a rate cut of 8.3 percent on average. Florida Insurance Commissioner Kevin McCarty said in an issued statement regarding these rate decreases, “We will not allow companies to file incomplete or inadequate rate reductions affecting the policyholders of this state.” Finally something is starting to be done to help those who are struggling with keeping their properties in the black due to the large increases in taxes and insurance. But that doesnt mean all insurance carriers in Florida are on the right track.

Florida Farm Burueau was recently denied a 26 percent rate increase by the Office of Insurance Regulation. This comes even after Florida legislators passed legislation to help insurance carriers keep their costs down. Under the new law, companies have access to cheaper reinsurance €“ or insurance for insurance companies €“ through the Florida Hurricane Catastrophic Fund. In turn, companies are supposed to pass reinsurance savings on to consumers. So why were these 3 carriers denied a rate decrease then? Tom Zutell, a spokesman for the Office of Insurance Regulation said, €œOn these three particular ones,€ Zutell said, €œthe actuary said that it appears from their reinsurance contracts that they realized a lot more savings in reinsurance than they passed on to the consumer.€

It looks like we’re starting to get on the right track, but the road ahead is a long one.

Peter J. Barnett CCIM

Excerpts taken from The Bradenton Herald, Fla Brian Neill. The Associated Press contributed to this report.

How motivated are some developers getting to unload their unsold condo units? How about auctioning off their last 20 unsold units, 8 of which will have no reserve. The following article appeared in the Miami Herald a short time ago:

Panoramic views of Biscayne Bay. A short distance to the Carnival Center and downtown Miami. Living in the heart of Miami’s emerging Edgewater neighborhood.

It’s all yours ” for auction next month inside a Marriott Hotel ballroom.

In what may preview the straits the ailing South Florida condo market faces in the coming months, developers of the Platinum condominium are auctioning 20 condos in its 119-unit, 22-story tower. Eight will go to the highest bidder, no matter how low the sales price. The rest require the developer’s approval.

Carmen Redondo, a principal with Maysville, the property’s builder, said buyers started closing on units at Platinum, 480 NE 30th St., in May, but the remaining inventory couldn’t attract enough interest in the sluggish market. We decided to auction the last 20 units so we can finish this project and go to a new thing,” Redondo said.

The move echoes the condo bust of the 1980s, when new units were auctioned in bulk across South Florida. Recently, individual condo owners, companies converting apartments into condos and single-family builders have already experimented with auctions, both online and in person with full-throated auctioneers.

But South Florida condo builders, who are completing a record spate of new towers, have been slow to adopt auctions to move unsold units.

This may be among the first auctions for new condos in South Florida in the current downturn, said Jack McCabe, a Deerfield Beach real estate analyst who has long warned about condo overbuilding.

Market watchers bet more are to come, given conditions in the condo market. In June, the number of Miami-Dade condos sold dropped 52 percent from the same month a year earlier ” although prices held on, gaining 7 percent year-over-year to a median price of $275,500.

Richard Swerdlow, chief executive of condo seller condo.com, said the company is launching an online auction business for new condos within the next two months.

Real estate analyst Michael Cannon said auctions are not necessarily a sign of distress but another marketing tool. Developers have adopted a range of measures to sell units, from lavishing incentives on buyers to offering to temporarily lease back units.

Cannon also said the 1980s auctions were not always successful. The state of the market was so depressed then,” he said. That is not necessarily the case today because there are still buyers in this market. They are just looking for better deals.”

The Platinum auction, meanwhile, presents an interesting twist. Typically, auctions establish a floor price at the start of bidding. If the minimum is too high, bidders sit out and the seller keeps the unit. But at the Sept. 20 auction, eight of the 20 units will be sold without any minimum ” meaning the highest bidder, no matter how low the winning price, gets the unit.

It will be very interesting to see what prices they fetch for those,” Swerdlow said. I may go down there and buy a unit.”

Miami Herald staff writer Steve Rothaus contributed to this report. Copyright © 2007 The Miami Herald, Matthew Haggman.

What does this mean for investors looking to invest in Florida Commercial Real Estate? It means you need to have someone working with you who can not only advise you on the current market but recognize and forecast market trends to help you invest wisely. Part of the CCIM training is dedicated to market and area analysis and it is a powerful tool to have at your disposal. Contact J.A. Barnett Realty Group today for an in depth analysis of your current portfolio of investment properties or help with a purchase of a new property.

Peter J. Barnett, CCIM